Kalshi prediction market analysis
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Be the wisdom, not the crowd
Newsom leads a crowded 2028 Democratic field while polls still favor Harris
2028 Democratic presidential nominee NEWSOM 18% · 5.6x
Nobody has formally entered the 2028 Democratic presidential race. National surveys in July still put Kamala Harris first; Kalshi prices California Governor Gavin Newsom as the favorite anyway.
July Fed hold cools to 76% as hike odds rebuild
Fed decision in Jul 2026? RATE 76% · 1.3x
Traders price the SAVE Act as unlikely to become law by early 2027
Will "SAVE Act" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027? BEFORE JAN 4, … 7.5% · 13.3x
Giamatti leads Pattinson for Best Supporting Actor
GIAMATTI 29% · 3.4x
Ella Langley runs away with Best New Artist
LANGLEY 95% · 1.1x
Miami’s July 23 high favors 92–93° at the airport
Highest temperature in Miami on Jul 23, 2026? 92° TO 93° 58% · 1.7x
NYC high for July 23 clusters around 79–82°
Highest temperature in NYC on Jul 23, 2026? 79° TO 80° 44% · 2.3x
September Fed decision is a coin flip between hold and a hike
Fed decision in Sep 2026? RATE 50% · 2.0x
Donalds is Florida’s clear favorite for the GOP nomination
Florida Republican Governor nominee? DONALDS 96.8% · 1.0x
Democrats are slight favorites to hold more governorships after 2026
PARTY 54% · 1.9x
Q2 GDP: traders see Above 1.5% as likely, Above 2% as a coin flip
US GDP growth in Q2 2026? ABOVE 2.0% 51% · 2.0x
July CPI: traders lean toward a print still clearing 0%
ABOVE 0.0% 67% · 1.5x
Vance leads Rubio for the 2028 Republican nomination
VANCE 40% · 2.5x
Democrats are heavy favorites to win the House in 2026
PARTY 83% · 1.2x
Republicans hold a thin edge for Senate control in 2026
Which party will win the U.S. Senate? PARTY 56% · 1.8x
Palmeiras are favorites over Atlético Mineiro with the draw still live
Palmeiras vs Atletico Mineiro Winner? PALMEIRAS 63% · 1.6x
Lakers jump to 60% for Bronny’s next team before October
What will be Bronny James's next team? L 60% · 1.7x
Ankalaev is a heavy favorite over Guskov on short notice
Fight Night: Ankalaev vs Guskov ANKALAEV 83% · 1.2x
Rahm is the LIV Golf UK favorite on a deep JCB field
LIV Golf United Kingdom Champion? SETTLED · RAHM
Dodgers lead the World Series board with the Yankees a distant second
Pro Baseball Champion D 34.3% · 2.9x
OKC and San Antonio sit nearly even for the 2027 NBA title
2027 Pro Basketball Champion CITY 22% · 4.5x
Harry Kane leads the Ballon d’Or board with Yamal the clear chase
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026? KANE 45% · 2.2x
Traders put a real minority on a July hike clearing 3.75%
Fed funds rate after Jul 2026 meeting? ABOVE 3.75% 23% · 4.3x
LAX high settles near 77–78° while downtown heats up
Highest temperature in LA on Jul 22, 2026? SETTLED · 77° TO 78°
Miami hosts Chicago without Messi as Lewandowski debuts
Miami vs Chicago Fire Winner? SETTLED · MIAMI
Toronto and Tampa Bay sit nearly even after two Rays blowouts
SETTLED · TORONTO
Boston stays a clear favorite in Game 1 of a rain-made doubleheader
Baltimore vs Boston Winner? SETTLED · BOSTON
Philadelphia stays a slight favorite after beating the Dodgers 10-7
Los Angeles D vs Philadelphia Winner? SETTLED · PHILADELPHIA
Toronto is a coin-flip favorite after Chicago’s 12-4 statement
Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Winner? SETTLED · CWS
Democrats are a heavy favorite in North Carolina, with a closer race underneath
COOPER 90.8% · 1.1x
Darline Graham leads South Carolina’s special Senate primary after Trump’s endorsement
South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner? GRAHAM 71% · 1.4x
Miami takes the lead for LeBron after Cleveland’s weeklong slide
What will LeBron James’s next team be?
Spain is the favorite, but Messi’s Argentina is built for a final
SETTLED · FR
Scheffler is the 3M Open favorite on a course he’s never played
SETTLED · TCAM
Dee Valladares leads Big Brother winner odds after Week 1 Head of Household
VALLADARES 18% · 5.6x
Traders lean toward higher Zyn shipments ahead of Philip Morris’s Q2 report
Zyn US shipment volume in Q2 ABOVE 190 MILL… 75% · 1.3x
Traders see little chance Bertha reaches hurricane strength
CATEGORY 1 OR … 5% · 20.0x