Kalshi prediction market analysis
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Newsom leads a crowded 2028 Democratic field while polls still favor Harris
Nobody has formally entered the 2028 Democratic presidential race. National surveys in July still put Kamala Harris first; Kalshi prices California Governor Gavin Newsom as the favorite anyway.
WTI’s Monday settle is priced as an easy clear of $84, a coin flip above $88
Oil Price (WTI) on Jul 27, 2026?ABOVE $84.491.2x86%ABOVE $84.991.2x83%$34.4K volume30 related marketsTraders have stopped treating Monday’s WTI settle as a fight at $84 — the ladder favors clearing that…
Traders put nearly even money on WTI revisiting $115 before year-end
How high will oil (WTI) get by Dec 31, 2026?$115.01 OR ABO…2.1x47.5%$120.01 OR ABO…2.5x39.6%$6.3M volume10 related marketsA 48% chance WTI revisits $115 before year-end still leaves $120-plus with real room after this week’s Middle…
Brent’s July 31 5pm print is a coin flip above $91 after this week’s $100 close
Brent crude oil price on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?ABOVE $50.991.0x100%ABOVE $52.991.0x100%$162K volume30 related marketsThe July 31 Brent ladder is days away from a single 5pm ET Pyth print — not today’s…
Fake News leads Democrat on Trump’s WHCD mention bets
What will Donald Trump say during White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026?SAYS “FAKE NEWS”88%SAYS “DEMOCRAT”80%$973K volume40 related marketsThree months after gunfire emptied the Washington Hilton ballroom before President Donald Trump could speak, the White House…
Traders lean toward more than 13 SpaceX launches in July
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?ABOVE 101.0x100%ABOVE 111.0x100%$641K volume8 related marketsSpaceX has already completed 10 launches in July through July 21. Traders put a 79% chance on clearing…
Bitcoin’s $64,000 odds sit near a coin flip ahead of the 5pm ET settlement
Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026?$50,000 OR ABO…100%$50,500 OR ABO…100%$4M volume40 related marketsBitcoin spent Friday midday sitting on the number that settles this market. The CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index…
July Fed hold cools to 76% as hike odds rebuild
Fed decision in Jul 2026?FED MAINTAINS …1.3x76%HIKE 25BPS4.2x24%$35M volume5 related marketsThe July Federal Reserve meeting is days away, and traders have stopped treating a hold as nearly certain.
Traders price the SAVE Act as unlikely to become law by early 2027
Will "SAVE Act" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027?BEFORE JAN 4, …13.3x7.5%$9.1M volume1 related marketThe January 4, 2027 deadline is still on the calendar, and traders treat the SAVE Act becoming law…
Giamatti leads Pattinson for Best Supporting Actor
Oscar winner: Best Supporting ActorGIAMATTI3.4x29%PATTINSON4.2x24%$18.1K volume21 related marketsFavorite and runner-up are closer than the headline suggests: Paul Giamatti leads Best Supporting Actor, with Robert Pattinson…
Ella Langley runs away with Best New Artist
Grammy Winner: Best New ArtistLANGLEY1.1x95%GEESE50.0x2%$58K volume40 related marketsTraders have stopped treating Best New Artist as an open race — Ella Langley has pulled almost all…
Miami’s July 23 high favors 92–93° at the airport
Highest temperature in Miami on Jul 23, 2026?92° TO 93°58%90° TO 91°28%$35.8K volume6 related marketsKalshi settles on the National Weather Service daily high at Miami International Airport (not every neighborhood thermometer) and…
NYC high for July 23 clusters around 79–82°
Highest temperature in NYC on Jul 23, 2026?79° TO 80°44%81° TO 82°34%$6.4K volume6 related marketsKalshi settles on the National Weather Service daily high for New York City — typically the Central Park…
September Fed decision is a coin flip between hold and a hike
Fed decision in Sep 2026?FED MAINTAINS …2.0x50%HIKE 25BPS2.1x48%$293K volume5 related marketsA 50% chance of a September hold still leaves a quarter-point hike nearly even money — neither side…
Donalds is Florida’s clear favorite for the GOP nomination
Florida Republican Governor nominee?DONALDS1.0x96.8%FISHBACK35.7x2.8%$10M volume9 related marketsThe 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary is still on the calendar, and traders treat U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds…
Democrats are slight favorites to hold more governorships after 2026
Who will hold more governorships after the midterms?DEMOCRATIC PAR…1.9x54%REPUBLICAN PAR…2.9x34%$98.9K volume3 related marketsFavorite and runner-up are closer than a clean two-party story: Democrats lead Republicans to hold more governorships after…
Q2 GDP: traders see Above 1.5% as likely, Above 2% as a coin flip
US GDP growth in Q2 2026?ABOVE 0.0%1.0x100%ABOVE 0.5%1.0x99%$172K volume9 related marketsKalshi’s Q2 2026 U.S. GDP growth ladder prices Above 1.0% at 91% and Above 1.5% at 84%, with…
July CPI: traders lean toward a print still clearing 0%
CPI in JulyABOVE -0.3%1.0x100%ABOVE -0.4%1.0x100%$201K volume10 related marketsKalshi’s July CPI ladder prices Above −0.1% at 87% and Above 0.0% at 67% — separate Yes/No bets…
Vance leads Rubio for the 2028 Republican nomination
2028 Republican presidential nomineeJ.D. VANCE2.5x40%RUBIO3.3x30%$53M volume38 related marketsFavorite and runner-up are closer than the headline suggests: Vice President J.D. Vance leads Secretary of State Marco…
Democrats are heavy favorites to win the House in 2026
Which party will win the U.S. House?DEMOCRATIC PAR…1.2x83%REPUBLICAN PAR…5.6x18%$18M volume2 related marketsAn 83% chance Democrats win the U.S. House in 2026 still leaves Republicans a thin path on a…
Republicans hold a thin edge for Senate control in 2026
Which party will win the U.S. Senate?REPUBLICAN PAR…1.8x56%DEMOCRATIC PAR…2.2x45%$6.1M volume2 related marketsTraders have stopped treating Senate control as a House-style blowout — Republicans hold only a thin edge over…
Palmeiras are favorites over Atlético Mineiro with the draw still live
Palmeiras vs Atletico Mineiro Winner?PALMEIRAS1.6x63%TIE3.7x27%$288 volume3 related marketsThe July 26 Brasileirão matchup is hours from kickoff, and Palmeiras sit as favorites with the draw still…
Lakers jump to 60% for Bronny’s next team before October
What will be Bronny James's next team?L1.7x60%MIAMI4.3x23%$405K volume31 related marketsKalshi now prices the Los Angeles Lakers at 60% to be Bronny James’s team before October 23, 2026,…
Ankalaev is a heavy favorite over Guskov on short notice
Fight Night: Ankalaev vs GuskovANKALAEV83%GUSKOV19%$191K volume2 related marketsFormer UFC light heavyweight champion Magomed Ankalaev is an 83% favorite on Kalshi against Bogdan Guskov, who takes…
Rahm is the LIV Golf UK favorite on a deep JCB field
LIV Golf United Kingdom Champion?RAHM21%DECHAMBEAU12%$593K volume40 related marketsJon Rahm leads Kalshi’s LIV Golf United Kingdom board at 21% as the field heads to JCB’s course,…
Dodgers lead the World Series board with the Yankees a distant second
Pro Baseball ChampionD2.9x34.3%Y7.7x13%$36M volume30 related marketsKalshi’s 2026 pro baseball champion market still prices the Los Angeles Dodgers as a clear favorite into late…
OKC and San Antonio sit nearly even for the 2027 NBA title
2027 Pro Basketball ChampionOKLAHOMA CITY4.5x22%ANTONIO5.0x20%$11M volume30 related marketsKalshi’s 2027 pro basketball champion market is a two-horse open at the top: Oklahoma City at 22% and…
Harry Kane leads the Ballon d’Or board with Yamal the clear chase
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?KANE2.2x45%YAMAL4.0x25%$4.7M volume31 related marketsKalshi prices Harry Kane as the 2026 Ballon d’Or favorite at 45%, with Barcelona forward Lamine Yamal next…
Traders put a real minority on a July hike clearing 3.75%
Fed funds rate after Jul 2026 meeting?ABOVE 2.75%1.0x100%ABOVE 3.00%1.0x100%$2.6M volume11 related marketsThe Fed’s next statement lands July 29. The target range already sits at 3.50%–3.75%. The live debate in…
LAX high settles near 77–78° while downtown heats up
Highest temperature in LA on Jul 22, 2026?77° TO 78°90%79° TO 80°9%$766K volume6 related marketsKalshi settles on the National Weather Service daily high at Los Angeles International Airport (KLAX), which can differ…
Miami hosts Chicago without Messi as Lewandowski debuts
Miami vs Chicago Fire Winner?MIAMI42%CHICAGO FIRE37%$301K volume3 related marketsSecond-place Miami hosts third-place Chicago at Nu Stadium three days after Argentina’s World Cup final. Lionel Messi is…
Toronto and Tampa Bay sit nearly even after two Rays blowouts
Tampa Bay vs Toronto Winner?TORONTO51%BAY50%$373K volume2 related marketsThe Rays have already won the first two games of this series in Toronto by a combined 9–3.
Boston stays a clear favorite in Game 1 of a rain-made doubleheader
Baltimore vs Boston Winner?BOSTON61%BALTIMORE40%$3.2M volume2 related marketsTuesday’s Orioles–Red Sox game at Fenway Park was washed out, so the clubs play two on Wednesday. Game…
Philadelphia stays a slight favorite after beating the Dodgers 10-7
Los Angeles D vs Philadelphia Winner?PHILADELPHIA53%D48%$972K volume2 related marketsThe Phillies beat the Dodgers 10-7 on Monday in Philadelphia, and shortstop Trea Turner hit two home runs…
Toronto is a coin-flip favorite after Chicago’s 12-4 statement
Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Winner?CWS—2 related marketsThe White Sox crushed the Blue Jays 12-4 on Friday in Toronto and have beaten them in all…
Democrats are a heavy favorite in North Carolina, with a closer race underneath
Will Democrats win the Senate race in North Carolina?COOPER1.1x90.8%WHATLEY9.1x11%2 related marketsNorth Carolina’s former governor Roy Cooper is the Democratic nominee for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat. Traders…
Darline Graham leads South Carolina’s special Senate primary after Trump’s endorsement
South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?GRAHAM1.4x71%NORMAN5.0x20%11 related marketsSen. Darline Graham Nordone, the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, said Monday she will run for…
Miami takes the lead for LeBron after Cleveland’s weeklong slide
LeBron James has spent recent weeks in Akron with family and friends, still without saying when he will…
Spain is the favorite, but Messi’s Argentina is built for a final
Final: Spain vs ArgentinaFR—40 related marketsTwo soccer titans take the stage in Sunday’s World Cup final, pitting Lionel Messi and Argentina’s resilience against…
Scheffler is the 3M Open favorite on a course he’s never played
Who will win the 3M Open?TCAM—40 related marketsScottie Scheffler, the world’s No. 1 golfer, is playing the 3M Open in Blaine, Minnesota, for the first…
Dee Valladares leads Big Brother winner odds after Week 1 Head of Household
Who will win Big Brother?VALLADARES5.6x18%PFEIFFER9.1x11%17 related marketsDee Valladares, who won season 45 of the CBS show Survivor, entered Big Brother Season 28 as a…
Traders lean toward higher Zyn shipments ahead of Philip Morris’s Q2 report
Zyn US shipment volume in Q2ABOVE 160 MILL…100%ABOVE 165 MILL…99%11 related marketsPhilip Morris International is due to report second-quarter results on July 22, including how many cans of Zyn…
Traders see little chance Bertha reaches hurricane strength
Hurricane Bertha category?CATEGORY 1 OR …5%CATEGORY 2 OR …2%$142K volume5 related marketsTropical Storm Bertha is moving near the northern Gulf Coast with maximum sustained winds near 60 mph. Traders…