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August 14, 2026, 12:30pm ET
Social posts are floating an “80% chance of a Fed hike next year.” On Kalshi’s next-hike ladder, a raise by the end of 2027 sits near 78%. A hike by the end of this year is only about even money — and that nearer deadline just faded six percentage points today.
You’re betting on when the Federal Reserve next raises the federal funds rate — the short-term interest rate it targets. These sides stack by deadline: a later date includes every earlier date. If the Fed hikes once before an earlier deadline, every later deadline that still covers that hike also pays.
| Your bet | Chance | Wins if… | $100 bet pays |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2028 | 78% | the Fed raises rates again by December 31, 2027 | ~$128 |
| Before July 2027 | 74% | the Fed raises rates again by June 30, 2027 | ~$134 |
| Before 2027 | 49% | the Fed raises rates again by December 31, 2026 | ~$193 |
Example: a first hike in March 2027 pays Before July 2027 and Before 2028, and loses Before 2027. Kalshi confirms from the Federal Reserve’s rate announcements.
The case for a hike by the end of 2027. Before 2028 sits near 78%. The last raise was July 26, 2023; since then the Fed has cut and then held. On July 29, 2026 the committee left the target range at 3½ to 3¾ percent, and three voters wanted a quarter-point hike that day (Federal Reserve statement, July 29, 2026). Futures markets still treat a September hike as a live minority: Investing.com’s Fed rate monitor, built on CME FedWatch, put a September move up to the 3.75–4.00% range near 31% on August 14, 2026. That mix — dissent already on the table, inflation still above the 2% goal in the Fed’s own July note — is why traders keep a multi-year window for “the next hike” well above a coin flip.
The case against a hike this calendar year. Before 2027 is only 49%, and it fell from 55% at the overnight open. The liquid money is here: about $93K of the ~$94K in 24-hour volume traded on this nearer deadline. Holding through year-end is still an open fight. CME-linked September hold odds near 69% (same Fed rate monitor print) line up with Kalshi’s own September decision market favoring no change. A hot inflation print can reopen a 2026 hike. A quiet path into December leaves the “80% next year” headline looking like it borrowed the long deadline’s price and slapped it on the short one.
Before 2028 at 78% and Before 2027 at 49% means traders mostly expect another hike sometime by the end of 2027 — and they are roughly even on whether it arrives before 2027 starts.
2 reasons that 78% headline can mislead:
Grant the long-window favorite — then read the nearer deadline before you retweet an 80% claim.
September 16, 2026: next scheduled Fed rate decision. Consumer Price Index and jobs prints into that meeting. December 31, 2026: deadline for the Before 2027 side. June 30, 2027 and December 31, 2027: later deadlines on the same ladder.