Baseline iPhone 18 before April 2027 leads as Apple splits the launch
When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
BEFORE APRIL 2…1.2x85%
BEFORE MARCH 2…5.6x18%
$5M volume5 related markets
Prediction market analysis
Squarefade
Be the wisdom, not the crowd
Democrats hold a narrow edge in a coin-flip Texas Senate race
Texas Senate winner?
TALARICO1.7x59%
PAXTON2.3x43%
$14M volume2 related markets
Daily Sports
Today’s game boards — odds and a short read.
Baseball Milwaukee vs Philadelphia
Kalshi has Milwaukee near 55% (Philadelphia 47%) on Milwaukee vs Philadelphia.
MILWAUKEE1.6x62%
PHILADELPHIA2.6x39%$1.8M volume2 related marketsFootball Atlanta vs Green Bay
Kalshi has Green Bay near 72% (Atlanta 29%) on Atlanta vs Green Bay.
GREEN BAY1.4x71%
ATLANTA3.3x30%$1.4M volume2 related marketsBaseball Tampa Bay vs New York Y
Kalshi has New York Y near 56% (Tampa Bay 45%) on Tampa Bay vs…
NEW YORK Y1.8x57%
TAMPA BAY2.3x44%$1.1M volume2 related marketsBasketball Atlanta vs New York
Kalshi has Atlanta near 59% (New York 43%) on Atlanta vs New York.
ATLANTA1.6x61%
NEW YORK2.6x38%$793K volume2 related marketsBasketball Dallas vs Seattle
Kalshi has Dallas near 80% (Seattle 20%) on Dallas vs Seattle.
DALLAS1.3x79%
SEATTLE4.5x22%$454K volume2 related markets
Latest analyses
Open markets — longer reads and reference hubs.
Anthropic IPO confirmation before November remains the clear favorite
When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?BEFORE APR 1, …1.1x90%BEFORE MAR 1, …1.1x88%$2.2M volume12 related marketsAnthropic confidentially filed a draft registration statement (Form S-1) with the SEC in June. Traders favor a confirmed…
Democrats are slight favorites to hold more governorships after 2026
Who will hold more governorships after the midterms?DEMOCRATIC PAR…1.4x71%REPUBLICAN PAR…5.3x19%$238K volume3 related marketsFavorite and runner-up are closer than a clean two-party story: Democrats lead Republicans to hold more governorships after…
