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Christopher Nolan's summer epic The Odyssey opened July 17 and already sits as the Best Picture favorite on Kalshi — but at 51%, with Dune: Part Three next at 12% and more than three dozen other films still listed, the board reads as a lead, not a lock.
You're betting on which film wins the Academy Award for Best Picture at the 99th Oscars. Each title is its own side; only the winner pays.
| Your bet | Chance | Wins if… | $100 bet pays |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Odyssey | 51% | The Odyssey wins Best Picture | ~$189 |
| Dune: Part Three | 12% | Dune: Part Three wins Best Picture | ~$782 |
| Digger | 12% | Digger wins Best Picture | ~$782 |
| The Black Ball | 9% | The Black Ball wins Best Picture | ~$1,040 |
| Wild Horse Nine | 7% | Wild Horse Nine wins Best Picture | ~$1,335 |
Thirty-five other listed films trade from about 1% to 6% each. Any side that does not win loses the stake.
Kalshi confirms the winner from the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
The case for The Odyssey. Nolan's Homeric epic opened July 17, 2026 on IMAX screens and has grossed about $1.6 billion worldwide on a reported $250 million budget, per Wikipedia's box-office tally. That scale matters because his last Universal release, Oppenheimer, won Best Picture at the March 10, 2024 Oscars — the first top-grossing winner since The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King in 2004, according to The Hollywood Reporter. The Odyssey reassembles much of that machine: Nolan directing and producing with Emma Thomas, Ludwig Göransson on score, Hoyte van Hoytema shooting, Jennifer Lame editing. Matt Damon leads an ensemble that includes Anne Hathaway, Tom Holland, Robert Pattinson, and Zendaya. At 51%, traders give Nolan's summer blockbuster a narrow majority on a board that still lists more than forty titles.
The case for Dune: Part Three. Denis Villeneuve's franchise sequel sits at 12%, tied with Digger for second place. Dune: Part Two earned a Best Picture nomination at the 2024 ceremony but lost to Oppenheimer — a reminder that blockbuster scale and craft nominations do not guarantee the top prize. Part Three still carries franchise gravity: the first two Dune films combined IMAX spectacle with repeated Oscar attention in technical categories. Twelve percent is co-favorite weight against a single front-runner, not a long-shot lottery ticket. If Academy voters split between honoring Nolan's mythic epic and rewarding Villeneuve's sci-fi conclusion, Dune: Part Three is the clearest named alternative on the board.
Put $100 on The Odyssey at 51% and you get about $189 back if it wins; the same stake on Dune: Part Three at 12% returns about $782.
The Odyssey at 51% and Dune: Part Three at 12% leave about 37% of priced probability on the rest of the board — Digger also at 12%, The Black Ball at 9%, Wild Horse Nine at 7%, and dozens of smaller sides. The board gives Nolan a lead with plenty of room left for another title to surge.
3 reasons The Odyssey's 51% can still move:
Telluride, Venice, and Toronto in late 2026; Golden Globes and guild awards in January 2027; Oscar nominations and the 99th Academy Awards ceremony, expected in March 2027. This market's last trading day is December 31, 2027.