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September 15, 2026, 11:23am ET
Week 1 is in the books and Josh Allen already made the MVP case again: four total touchdowns in a comeback win over Houston, a price bump on Kalshi, and the same rival he narrowly beat for the award two seasons ago sitting right behind him. Lamar Jackson is the runner-up at 12%, and Caleb Williams is tied with him after Chicago’s 59-point opener.
You are betting on which player wins the AP Regular Season MVP award for the 2026-27 NFL season. If the named player wins, that side pays. If someone else wins, that side loses.
| Your bet | Chance | Wins if... | $100 bet pays |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 16% | the Buffalo Bills quarterback wins AP MVP | ~$581 |
| Lamar Jackson | 12% | the Baltimore Ravens quarterback wins AP MVP | ~$833 |
| Caleb Williams | 12% | the Chicago Bears quarterback wins AP MVP | ~$833 |
| Joe Burrow | 9% | the Cincinnati Bengals quarterback wins AP MVP | ~$1,037 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 7% | the Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback wins AP MVP | ~$1,250 |
Dozens of other quarterbacks and skill players are listed near 1–6% each. If one of those players wins MVP, that side pays and the favorites in this table lose. If the award is shared as co-winners, Kalshi resolves to the Tie/Co-Winners side listed on the board.
The case for Josh Allen. Allen is the Buffalo Bills quarterback and the market favorite at 16%, which is still a small number for a player who just opened the season with a statement. In Week 1 he went 20-of-29 for 334 yards and four total touchdowns — two passing and two rushing — in a 36-31 comeback win over Houston, the defense that had given him the most trouble in recent years. CBS Sports noted that his average pass traveled 13.2 yards downfield, higher than any game in 2025, 2024, or 2023, with a career-high five completions of 30-plus yards. That matters because Buffalo added DJ Moore and got a healthier Dalton Kincaid after a conservative passing year in 2025. Allen already won AP MVP for the 2024 season, edging Lamar Jackson 383 points to 362 at NFL Honors in February 2025. Over the week ending September 15, Kalshi traders moved his price from about 11% to 16% after that Houston performance. The Allen case is straightforward: the reigning MVP playing like it again, on a Bills team still expected to contend, with a quick Thursday Night Football test against Detroit in Week 2.
The case for Lamar Jackson. Jackson is the Baltimore Ravens quarterback and the runner-up at 12%, tied on this board with Caleb Williams but still the cleaner comp for Allen because both men have already won the award. In Week 1 he went 17-of-25 for 324 yards with a passing touchdown and added 40 rushing yards and a score on the ground in a win at Indianapolis. Sports Illustrated’s post-Week 1 odds board still had Allen at +500 and Jackson at +700 among sportsbooks, but on Kalshi the gap is narrower. Jackson is a two-time AP MVP seeking a third, which would put him in rare company. The price is not asking for perfection — it is asking for another season where Baltimore’s offense looks unlike anyone else’s and Jackson stays healthy through January. If Allen cools off or Buffalo slips, 12% can climb without Jackson needing a historic stat line every week.
The field is real. Caleb Williams matched Jackson at 12% after Chicago scored 59 points on Carolina in Week 1, with Sports Illustrated writing that Williams went from +1200 to +700 at DraftKings after the opener. Joe Burrow sits at 9% on a Bengals team many picked to bounce back. Trevor Lawrence is at 7% after four passing touchdowns in Jacksonville’s Week 1 win. Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy, Matthew Stafford, and a long tail of quarterbacks and skill players fill out the rest of the 46-market board. The top five combine for 56%; everyone else still holds 44%.
16% means traders see Allen as the most likely winner — and leave 84% of the probability spread across everyone else.
Put the top of the field side by side. Allen is at 16%. Jackson and Williams are both at 12%. Burrow is at 9%, and Lawrence at 7%. That is a crowded front led by three quarterbacks who already have MVP trophies or MVP-level hype, with Williams as the fresh Week 1 story.
One recent precedent keeps the narrow favorite from feeling settled. Allen beat Jackson for the 2024 AP MVP by 21 points despite Jackson earning first-team All-Pro quarterback — NFL.com reported the final tally as 383 to 362 with 27 first-place votes for Allen and 23 for Jackson. The lesson is narrow: this exact pairing can stay close all season even when one player opens ahead on the board.
3 reasons Allen’s 16% chance can still move:
Allen’s Thursday Night Football game against Detroit. Whether Chicago’s offense repeats its Week 1 scoring pace and keeps Williams in the conversation. Jackson’s efficiency under Baltimore’s new offensive coordinator and Burrow’s numbers if Cincinnati’s defense improves. AP voting closes after the regular season; the winner is announced at NFL Honors, expected in February 2027 before Super Bowl LXI.