Kalshi prices U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds at 97% to win the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial nomination, with investor James Fishback a distant 3% on a board that has already concentrated almost all of the probability.
You’re betting on who wins the 2026 Florida Republican nomination for governor. Each name is its own side; only the nominee collects.
| Your bet | Chance | Wins if… | $100 bet pays |
|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Donalds | 96.8% | Donalds wins the FL GOP gubernatorial nomination | ~$103 |
| James Fishback | 2.8% | Fishback wins the FL GOP gubernatorial nomination | ~$3,344 |
| Jay Collins | 1% | Collins wins the FL GOP gubernatorial nomination | ~$9,352 |
| Paul Renner | 0.3% | Paul Renner | ~$31,159 |
| Wilton Simpson | 0.1% | Wilton Simpson | ~$93,464 |
| Matt Gaetz | 0.1% | Matt Gaetz | ~$93,464 |
Jay Collins and other longshots remain open on Kalshi.
The case for Byron Donalds. Donalds sits at 97% because traders treat Florida’s Republican nomination as already decided in all but name. Wikipedia’s Byron Donalds page places him as a Florida congressman with statewide name recognition inside the party; the Kalshi ladder shows everyone else under 3%. A day move of just +0.3 percentage points says the market is not discovering a new favorite — it is maintaining one. That is the Donalds case at 97%: the clear front-runner for the Republican nomination in a state where that nomination is often the decisive step toward the governor’s office.
The case for James Fishback. Why Fishback still sits at 2.8%: even a 97% favorite leaves a thin residual path for a self-funded outsider if Donalds stumbles before primary day. This is leftover doubt, not a co-favorite brief — Squarefade keeps it short on purpose at the real single-digit price. That is the leftover case at 2.8%: a named longshot if the front-runner’s nomination somehow reopens.
Donalds at 97% and Fishback at 2.8% is a coronation board. Collins at 1% and the rest are noise on the ladder.
1 reason Donalds’ 97% can still move:
The market has this about right: Donalds is the nomination, and Fishback is residual doubt.
Florida Republican primary calendar for governor in 2026 — the nominee is decided on primary night.