The Bureau of Labor Statistics is due to publish August’s U.S. unemployment rate — the U-3 measure — on Friday, September 4, at 8:30am ET. Traders favor Above 4.0%, and leave Above 4.1% as the closer call after July already printed 4.1%.
You’re betting on the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports for August 2026. Each line in the table is its own Yes/No bet — “did the printed rate clear this number?” — not a single race where only one winner gets paid. So if the report is 4.2%, Above 4.1%, Above 4.0%, and Above 3.9% can all pay Yes on that same figure.
| Your bet | Chance | Wins if… | $100 bet pays |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.9% | 94% | August U-3 is above 3.9% | ~$105 |
| Above 4.0% | 89% | August U-3 is above 4.0% | ~$111 |
| Above 4.1% | 61% | August U-3 is above 4.1% | ~$159 |
| Above 4.2% | 33% | August U-3 is above 4.2% | ~$289 |
| Above 4.3% | 7% | August U-3 is above 4.3% | ~$1,341 |
Other bets on the same report — Above 3.7% and Above 3.8% — already trade near certainty, about 99%, so they are left out of the table.
Kalshi confirms the figure from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report for August 2026.
The case for Above 4.0%. July’s Employment Situation already put seasonally adjusted U-3 at 4.1%, after June’s 4.2%, and the St. Louis Fed’s flash note pinned the precise July reading near 4.090%. Nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 in July while consensus had expected a gain near 83,000, and the labor-force participation rate slipped to 61.4%. Holding near that July print — or rising a tenth — still clears 4.0% on the usual one-decimal BLS figure. Soft hiring and a thinner participation rate leave little room for a sharp drop under 4.0% in a single month. That is the Above 4.0% case at 89%: August’s published U-3 stays above four percent, in line with a labor market that just missed payroll expectations by a wide margin.
The case for Above 4.1%. Why Above 4.1% still sits near 61%: on BLS’s usual one-decimal print, “above 4.1%” means August has to come in at 4.2% or higher — a step up from July’s 4.1%, and back to June’s published level. The same soft July package that supports staying over 4.0% also keeps a bounce to 4.2% in play: payrolls swung negative versus an expected gain near 83,000, and participation fell to 61.4%, which can lift the unemployment rate when fewer people stay in the labor force. That is the Above 4.1% case at 61%: August’s U-3 prints above July’s rounded rate, not merely repeats it.
Traders put an 89% chance on August U-3 above 4.0% — and about an 11% chance the report comes in at 4.0% or below.
Above 3.9% is already treated as nearly certain at 94%. Above 4.0% is next at 89%. Above 4.1% falls to 61%, and Above 4.2% to 33%. The steepest drops are from 4.0% to 4.1% and from 4.1% to 4.2% — each about 28 percentage points — that is where traders disagree most about whether August only holds July’s print, climbs a tenth, or returns to June’s 4.2%.
At 61%, traders lean toward a print above 4.1% without treating a return to June’s 4.2% as locked.
2 reasons Above 4.0%’s 89% chance can still move:
September 4, 2026, 8:30am ET: Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report for August, including the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate.