Bitcoin is trading near the same dollars this market uses to pick a year-end winner. The CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) — the once-per-second dollar price that settles the bet — printed about $64,784 late Saturday. Traders still split the finish across many $5,000 bands, with $65,000–$69,999.99 only a thin favorite at 14%.
You’re betting on which price band Bitcoin finishes 2026 in. Kalshi pays the band that contains the simple average of sixty one-second BRTI prints in the minute before 12 AM EST on January 1, 2027. Only that band gets paid. The other bands lose.
| Your bet | Chance | Wins if… | $100 bet pays |
|---|---|---|---|
| $40k–$45k | 4% | BRTI average is $40,000–$44,999.99 | ~$2,130 |
| $45k–$50k | 5% | BRTI average is $45,000–$49,999.99 | ~$2,037 |
| $50k–$55k | 6% | BRTI average is $50,000–$54,999.99 | ~$1,645 |
| $55k–$60k | 10% | BRTI average is $55,000–$59,999.99 | ~$979 |
| $60k–$65k | 11% | BRTI average is $60,000–$64,999.99 | ~$825 |
| $65k–$70k | 14% | BRTI average is $65,000–$69,999.99 | ~$693 |
| $70k–$75k | 11% | BRTI average is $70,000–$74,999.99 | ~$871 |
| $75k–$80k | 7% | BRTI average is $75,000–$79,999.99 | ~$1,322 |
| $80k–$85k | 4% | BRTI average is $80,000–$84,999.99 | ~$2,082 |
| $85k–$90k | 4% | BRTI average is $85,000–$89,999.99 | ~$2,601 |
Other $5,000 bands below $40,000 and from $90,000 up through $150,000 or above sit near 1–3% each. Kalshi confirms the result from CF Benchmarks’ BRTI.
The case for $65k–$70k. Spot is already brushing this band. BRTI printed about $64,784 late Saturday, August 8 — about $200 under $65,000 — after Bitcoin climbed from an August 2 low near $62,200 to about $65,400 by Friday. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) took in about $853.54 million across five straight inflow days that same week, their best week since mid-April. CryptoQuant’s Axel Adler Jr. put the short-term holder realized price — the average buy price for coins held under about 155 days — at $67,523 on August 8, inside this $65,000–$69,999.99 window. That is the $65k–$70k case at 14%: finish 2026 where the recovery already pointed, with the first big pocket of recent buyers’ average cost still sitting inside the favorite band.
The case for $60k–$65k. Why $60k–$65k still sits at 11%: Bitcoin spent early August inside this band. The August 2 low near $62,200 was a $60,000–$64,999.99 print, and on August 8 BRTI was still only about $200 under the $65,000 line. Selling pressure was still showing up above $65,000 that day, and short-term holders still held coins bought near $67,523 — above August 8 spot — which can push Bitcoin back into the band it just left. One soft week of ETF outflows, or a failed hold above $65,000, puts the year-end sixty-second average back where Bitcoin lived days ago. That is the $60k–$65k case at 11%: the band Bitcoin just left, still priced almost even with the favorite on a crowded ladder.
14% means traders see $65,000–$69,999.99 as the single most likely finish — and still leave about an 86% chance that the January 1 average lands somewhere else.
Put the middle of the ladder side by side. $65k–$70k is at 14%. $60k–$65k and $70k–$75k sit near 11% each. $55k–$60k is at 10%. Those four bands alone carry roughly half the priced chance — the biggest clump is the middle of the ladder, not one runaway finish.
3 reasons the $65k–$70k 14% chance can still move:
January 1, 2027, 12 AM EST: CF Benchmarks BRTI sixty-second average. After that print, only the band that contains the number gets paid.