Baseline iPhone 18 before April 2027 leads as Apple splits the launch
When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
BEFORE APRIL 2…1.2x85%
BEFORE MARCH 2…5.6x18%
$5M volume5 related markets
Prediction market analysis
Squarefade
Be the wisdom, not the crowd
Democrats hold a narrow edge in a coin-flip Texas Senate race
Texas Senate winner?
TALARICO1.7x59%
PAXTON2.3x43%
$14M volume2 related markets
Daily Sports
Today’s game boards — odds and a short read.
Baseball Tampa Bay vs New York Y
Kalshi has New York Y near 100% (Tampa Bay 1%) on Tampa Bay vs…
NEW YORK Y1.0x100%
TAMPA BAY100.0x1%$2.5M volume2 related marketsBaseball Cleveland vs Boston
Kalshi has Boston near 83% (Cleveland 18%) on Cleveland vs Boston.
BOSTON1.2x83%
CLEVELAND5.6x18%$2.3M volume2 related marketsBasketball Atlanta vs New York
Kalshi has Atlanta near 96% (New York 5%) on Atlanta vs New York.
ATLANTA1.0x96%
NEW YORK20.0x5%$2.3M volume2 related marketsFootball Atlanta vs Green Bay
Kalshi has Green Bay near 72% (Atlanta 29%) on Atlanta vs Green Bay.
GREEN BAY1.4x71%
ATLANTA3.3x30%$1.6M volume2 related marketsBasketball Dallas vs Seattle
Kalshi has Dallas near 80% (Seattle 20%) on Dallas vs Seattle.
DALLAS1.3x77%
SEATTLE4.2x24%$648K volume2 related markets
Latest analyses
Open markets — longer reads and reference hubs.
Anthropic IPO confirmation before November remains the clear favorite
When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?BEFORE APR 1, …1.1x90%BEFORE MAR 1, …1.1x88%$2.2M volume12 related marketsAnthropic confidentially filed a draft registration statement (Form S-1) with the SEC in June. Traders favor a confirmed…
Democrats are slight favorites to hold more governorships after 2026
Who will hold more governorships after the midterms?DEMOCRATIC PAR…1.4x71%REPUBLICAN PAR…5.0x20%$238K volume3 related marketsFavorite and runner-up are closer than a clean two-party story: Democrats lead Republicans to hold more governorships after…
