SpaceX has already completed 10 launches in July through July 21. Traders put a 79% chance on clearing more than 13 by month-end, and leave Above 14 near 4%.
You’re betting on how many launches SpaceX has in July 2026 — the calendar month, not the full year. Each line in the table is its own Yes/No bet — “did the July total clear this number?” — so if July ends at 14 launches, Above 12 and Above 13 can both pay Yes on that same count while Above 14 does not.
| Your bet | Chance | Wins if… | $100 bet pays |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 12 | 99% | SpaceX has more than 12 launches in July 2026 | ~$100 |
| Above 13 | 79% | SpaceX has more than 13 launches in July 2026 | ~$124 |
| Above 14 | 4% | SpaceX has more than 14 launches in July 2026 | ~$2,342 |
| Above 15 | 1% | SpaceX has more than 15 launches in July 2026 | ~$9,351 |
Other bets on the same July count — Above 10 and Above 11 — already trade near certainty, about 98% to 99%, so they are left out of the table. Above 16 and Above 18 sit near 1%.
Kalshi confirms the figure from SpaceX’s official launch updates and announcements.
The case for Above 13. SpaceX’s own launches page and Jonathan McDowell’s July table at Jonathan’s Space Report both show 10 completed SpaceX launches through July 21 — mostly Starlink flights from Florida and California, plus a few non-Starlink missions. Clearing more than 13 means finishing July at 14 or higher, so traders need four more flights in the final week. The late-July schedule still lists four named attempts: Starship Flight 13 from Starbase (window July 24 after a July 16 abort and weather delays), Starlink 17-51 from Vandenberg on July 25, Starlink 17-52 around July 27–28, and NROL-95 from Cape Canaveral on July 30. June 2026 already finished at 14 SpaceX launches on the same monthly ladder — enough to clear Above 13. That is the Above 13 case at 79%: ten completed, four named tries left, and last month’s total already sat on 14.
The case for Above 14. Why Above 14 still sits at 4%: more than 14 means 15 or more launches, so SpaceX needs five more from the completed 10. The late-July list is about four attempts; the leftover case is that a fifth flight appears — a short-notice Starlink filler, or every named try plus one more — before August 1. That is the leftover case at 4%.
Traders put a 79% chance on a July SpaceX total above 13 launches — and about a 21% chance the month ends at 13 or fewer.
Above 12 is already treated as nearly certain at 99%. Above 13 is next at 79%. Above 14 falls to 4%, and Above 15 to 1%. The biggest gap is between Above 13 and Above 14 — that is where traders disagree most: whether July finishes at 14, or pushes to 15 or more.
June 2026’s finished total of 14 SpaceX launches is the clean monthly precedent for this ladder — Above 13 would have paid on that print, and Above 14 would not.
2 reasons Above 13’s 79% chance can still move:
July 24, 2026: Starship Flight 13 launch window from Starbase.
July 25, 2026: Starlink 17-51 from Vandenberg.
July 27–28, 2026: Starlink 17-52 from Vandenberg.
July 30, 2026: NROL-95 from Cape Canaveral.
August 1, 2026: July launch count closes for Kalshi settlement against SpaceX’s official updates.