Kalshi prices the SAVE Act becoming law before January 4, 2027 at only about 8% — which means the Squarefade favorite is that it does not become law by then, near 92%.
You’re betting on whether the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) becomes law before January 4, 2027. Yes means it becomes law by that date; if it does not, the No side collects under Kalshi’s listed rules.
| Your bet | Chance | Wins if… | $100 bet pays |
|---|---|---|---|
| Becomes law by Jan 4, 2027 | 7.5% | Becomes law by Jan 4, 2027 | ~$1,252 |
| Does not become law by then | 92.5% | SAVE Act has not become law by Jan 4, 2027 | ~$108 |
The case for Does not become law by then. The No path sits near 92% because an 8% Yes price is a longshot legislative finish in a divided Washington. Wikipedia’s SAVE Act page describes a voting/citizenship documentation bill that has to clear both chambers and a presidential signature — a gauntlet that usually kills most bills before a hard deadline. That is the No case at about 92%: the Act has not become law by January 4, 2027. The price already encodes that path; Squarefade is not inventing a second favorite where the board shows a thin residual. The price already encodes that path; Squarefade is not inventing a second favorite where the board shows a thin residual.
The case for Before Jan 4, 2027. Why Yes still sits at about 8%: Congress can still attach must-pass vehicles and force a late signature before a calendar cliff. This is leftover doubt at a single-digit price — Squarefade keeps it short. That is the leftover case at 8%: the Act somehow clears the finish line before January 4, 2027. The price already encodes that path; Squarefade is not inventing a second favorite where the board shows a thin residual. The price already encodes that path; Squarefade is not inventing a second favorite where the board shows a thin residual.
Yes at ~8% means No near 92% is the favorite. Treat Yes as residual legislative hope, not a second favorite.
1 reason the 8% can still move:
The market has this about right as a longshot Yes.
Congressional calendars through early 2027 — the market’s listed deadline is January 4, 2027.