Kalshi settles on the National Weather Service daily high for New York City — typically the Central Park observation — and prices 79°–80° at 44% with 81°–82° next at 34% for July 23.
You’re betting on NYC’s official daily high on July 23, 2026. Each temperature bucket is its own side; only the matching NWS high collects. Kalshi pays on the listed station reading, which can differ from a neighborhood thermometer.
| Your bet | Chance | Wins if… | $100 bet pays |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79° to 80° | 44% | Official high is 79° or 80°F | ~$219 |
| 81° to 82° | 34% | Official high is 81° or 82°F | ~$281 |
| 78° or below | 17% | Official high is 78°F or cooler | ~$556 |
| 83° to 84° | 9% | 83° to 84° | ~$1,045 |
| 85° to 86° | 4% | 85° to 86° | ~$2,343 |
| 87° or above | 3% | 87° or above | ~$3,121 |
The case for 79° to 80°. The 79°–80° bucket sits at 44%, the top ticket on a day-ahead board that still spreads probability across adjacent bins. NWS point forecasts for Manhattan keep summer highs in a narrow band when the city sits under a typical July pattern; traders have concentrated the largest single share here without making it a majority. That is the 79°–80° case at 44%: the official Central Park–area high lands in that two-degree window when the day is done. The price already encodes that path; Squarefade is not inventing a second favorite where the board shows a thin residual.
The case for 81° to 82°. Why 81°–82° still sits at 34%: it is inside ten points of the favorite on a temperature ladder where a degree or two of forecast error routinely flips the winning bin. Thirty-four percent is parallel-case weight — Squarefade treats it as a live alternate, not leftover doubt. That is the 81°–82° case at 34%: a slightly hotter official high if the city runs warm of the 79°–80° consensus. The price already encodes that path; Squarefade is not inventing a second favorite where the board shows a thin residual. The price already encodes that path; Squarefade is not inventing a second favorite where the board shows a thin residual.
79°–80° at 44% and 81°–82° at 34% means traders see two adjacent bins owning most of the board; 78° or below at 17% is the cool-side escape.
2 reasons these bins can still move:
Price the two middle bins as the live fight for July 23.
July 23, 2026 — NWS daily high for the listed NYC station.