Karen Bass is favored to keep the Los Angeles mayor’s office, with Nithya Raman still close behind

Who will win Los Angeles Mayoral Election?

BASS1.5x66%

RAMAN2.9x34%

$27M volume2 related markets

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and City Councilmember Nithya Raman are the two candidates left for the November 3 mayoral election. Traders make Bass the favorite to keep the job, and still give Raman about a one-in-three chance.

How this market pays

You’re betting on who wins the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election. After the winner is confirmed from official city election results, only that candidate’s side gets paid. The other side loses.

Kalshi confirms the winner from official Los Angeles election results. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

How to look at each side

The case for Karen Bass. At 66%, traders treat the sitting mayor as the clearer pick for November. Bass finished first in the June 2 primary with about 34% of the vote, ahead of Raman’s 29%, in the certified county count. She is already mayor, and by early August her campaign had raised more than $3.7 million to Raman’s more than $1.1 million, including about $510,000 for Bass against about $170,000 for Raman in the latest reporting period. In November 2022 she won this same office against developer Rick Caruso, 54.8% to 45.2% in the final tally, even after Caruso’s campaign spent more than $100 million. Name recognition as the incumbent, a first-place primary finish, and a large cash lead are why Bass sits at 66%.

The case for Nithya Raman. Why City Councilmember Nithya Raman still sits at 34%: she finished only about five points behind Bass in the June primary, and more than a third of June voters backed someone else — so November is a different electorate than the first round. Those June percentages were vote shares in a crowded field, not the same thing as today’s chance either candidate wins a one-on-one race. Precinct results showed Raman’s strength in neighborhoods such as Los Feliz, Silver Lake, Koreatown, and northeast Los Angeles. On homelessness — the fight that dominates City Hall — she argues her council district cut street homelessness in half in a year and wants that approach citywide, while Bass points to citywide programs and funding losses. She is a sitting councilmember who already cleared a crowded first round and still has three months to argue Bass’s first term fell short. That is the Raman case at 34%.

What the odds are saying

66% means traders see Bass as more likely than not to win — and still give Raman about a one-in-three chance. That is a clear lean for the incumbent, not a coin flip.

Bass’s 2022 win over Caruso shows she can close a November mayor race in this city. The caution sits in older city history: on May 17, 2005, City Councilmember Antonio Villaraigosa beat sitting Mayor James Hahn in the second round, 58.6% to 41.4%, after Hahn had already been forced past a first round where no one won more than half the votes. An incumbent Los Angeles mayor can lose a one-on-one November fight when voters want a change.

3 reasons Bass’s 66% chance can still move:

1. June voters who skipped Bass and Raman still matter. More than a third of the primary vote went to other candidates. Where those voters land — or whether they stay home — can still move a race priced 66/34 before November 3.
2. Homelessness remains the ballot-box issue. In August both candidates were arguing over street homelessness and who can claim credit for the results. A worse homelessness count, a visible crisis, or a sharp debate moment can move the favorite’s price without changing who is on the ballot.
3. Cash does not settle November alone. Bass leads fundraising by a wide margin, but Raman only needs enough money and turnout in her neighborhoods — plus enough of the uncommitted June vote — to make this closer than 66% suggests. Three months of ads and November turnout still sit ahead.

What to watch

November 3, 2026: Los Angeles mayoral election.