On July 29 the Federal Reserve announces its next rate decision. Traders have spent the past week swinging from a hike scare to a near-certain hold — and the market now prices leaving rates alone as the overwhelming favorite.
You’re betting on what the Fed does with rates at its July 28–29 meeting. After the meeting, only the side that matches the Fed’s move gets paid. The other sides lose.
| Your bet | Chance | Wins if… | $100 bet pays |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold | 95% | leaves rates unchanged, or the meeting is canceled | ~$104 |
| Hike ¼ pt | 6% | raises by exactly ¼ point | ~$1,563 |
| Hike by more | 1% | raises by more than ¼ point (for example, ½ point) | ~$9,351 |
| Cut ¼ pt | 1% | cuts by exactly ¼ point | ~$9,351 |
| Cut by more | 1% | cuts by more than ¼ point | ~$9,351 |
Kalshi confirms the decision from the Federal Reserve’s announcement.
The case for a hold. June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) — the government’s main inflation gauge — fell 0.4% on the month, the largest one-month drop since April 2020, and ran 3.5% over the year. Energy prices drove much of that cooling. The Fed’s June meeting left rates unchanged on a unanimous vote. After that CPI report came out on July 14, the hold side jumped from about 66% back above 90%.
The case against a pure hold story. Earlier this month, a July hike looked much more likely. On July 14 the hold briefly traded near 66% and a quarter-point hike near 32% as oil jumped on renewed Iran shipping pressure. Published notes from the Fed’s June meeting showed officials split on whether rates end 2026 higher or lower, and a few officials saw a case for hiking in June even as the committee held. Some officials still worry that artificial intelligence (AI) spending is keeping goods prices elevated — and that kind of inflation pressure is a reason to leave the door open for higher rates later. Leaving rates alone is the favorite right now at 95% — but the last two weeks already showed how fast this number can move.
95% means traders see leaving rates alone on July 29 as very likely.
Does a 95% chance of leaving rates alone make sense? Yes — after inflation cooled, it is reasonable that traders treat a July hold as very likely.
Traders still leave about a 6% chance on a quarter-point hike. That is not a strong case for a hike — it is leftover doubt. Some of it comes from the mid-month oil scare, when a hike briefly looked more likely. Some of it comes from a real split inside the Fed. In those June meeting notes, half the officials who submitted forecasts saw rates higher by the end of 2026, and half saw them unchanged or lower. The disagreement is about inflation: some expect prices to cool as energy costs fall, while others worry AI-driven spending will keep goods and electricity prices elevated. As long as that split exists, a July hike is not fully priced out.
July 28–29, 2026: Fed meeting; rate decision due July 29. After the announcement, only the side that matches what the Fed does gets paid.