July CPI: traders lean toward a print still clearing 0%

July 22, 2026, 6:44pm ET

Kalshi’s July CPI ladder prices Above −0.1% at 87% and Above 0.0% at 67% — separate Yes/No bets on the same monthly inflation figure, not a single winner.

Snapshot

Above -0.1%: 87% chance, +2.0 percentage points on the day
Above 0.0%: 67% chance, +2.0 percentage points on the day
7d movement: Above -0.1% 51% → 85%; Above 0.0% 86% → 67%
24h volume: ~$10,256
Resolution: July 2026 U.S. CPI monthly percent change (BLS)

How this market pays

You’re betting on July’s U.S. Consumer Price Index monthly change. Each “Above X%” line is its own Yes/No bet on the same BLS print — if the report is +0.1%, Above 0.0% and Above −0.1% can both pay Yes.

Your bet	Chance	Wins if…	$100 bet pays
Above -0.4%	100%	Above -0.4%	—
Above -0.3%	100%	Above -0.3%	—
Above -0.2%	96%	July CPI monthly change is above −0.2%	~$104
Above -0.1%	87%	July CPI monthly change is above −0.1%	~$114
Above 0.0%	67%	July CPI monthly change is above 0.0%	~$146
Above 0.1%	33%	Above 0.1%	~$289

Lower thresholds near certainty remain on Kalshi; higher thresholds sit further down the ladder.

How to look at each side

The case for Above -0.1%. Above −0.1% sits at 87% because traders mostly expect July’s monthly CPI change to clear a slightly negative threshold — a soft floor under the print rather than a call for hot inflation. Wikipedia’s CPI overview describes the index as the BLS’s main consumer inflation gauge; this ladder is about that monthly percent change. That is the Above −0.1% case at 87%: the report avoids a deeper monthly decline than that line.

The case for Above 0.0%. Why Above 0.0% still sits at 67%: clearing zero on the month is a harder ask than clearing −0.1%, and the ladder shows it — twenty points fall between those two strikes. Sixty-seven percent means traders lean toward a non-negative monthly print without treating it as locked. That is the Above 0.0% case at 67%: July’s CPI change finishes above flat, not merely above a slightly negative line.

What the odds are saying

Above −0.1% at 87% and Above 0.0% at 67% means the debate is whether July’s monthly change stays non-negative — not whether inflation collapsed.

2 reasons these strikes can still move:

Energy and shelter components swing the month. One gasoline move can shove the print across 0.0% without changing the year-over-year story.
These are nested bets. If Above 0.0% pays, Above −0.1% almost certainly does too — price the cliff, not a horse race.

The interesting gap is between −0.1% and 0.0%, not the near-certain lower lines.

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