Brent’s July 31 5pm print is a coin flip above $91 after this week’s $100 close

Kalshi’s July 31 Brent ladder settles on a single 5pm ET Pyth print next Friday — not on today’s futures tape. Traders leave Above $90.99 near 56% and Above $92.99 near a coin flip after Brent’s first $100 settlement since May and Friday’s pullback.

How this market pays

You’re betting where Brent crude — the global oil benchmark — stands at 5:00 PM Eastern on Friday, July 31, using a one-minute Pyth candle on the BRENTV6 contract. Each row is its own Yes/No bet on whether that one timestamp clears a dollar level. Nested, not exclusive: if the 5pm print is $95.40, Above $90.99, Above $92.99, and Above $94.99 can all pay Yes together.

Other bets on the same 5pm print — Above $88.99 at 63%, Above $96.99 at 31% — sit on the same ladder and resolve from that one Pyth close.

What could change the odds

Next Friday’s print will track whether this week’s shipping scare is still priced into Brent a week later. Investing News Network reported Brent settled at $100.69 on Thursday, July 23 — first close above $100 since May — after Houthi claims of strikes on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, with Hormuz disruption already in the background. Tradingpedia had Brent near $97.39 by Friday mid-morning Eastern as futures faded. Economic Times, citing Goldman Sachs, flagged a $120 Brent case if Hormuz disruptions persist, against a base case of eventual easing.

Another tanker incident, a CPC / Black Sea export update, or a diplomacy headline into next week are the clean movers. A calm week that keeps Brent in the mid-to-high $90s would still leave the $91–$93 band contested at the exact 5pm timestamp.

What the odds are saying

At 56%, Above $90.99 says traders see a modest edge that next Friday’s 5pm Brent print stays above $91 — about $179 back on a $100 Yes if it does.

Above $92.99 at 48% is the tighter nested ask on the same timestamp. The two strikes moved together on Friday’s fade (Snapshot: −8 and −10 percentage points), which is what you expect when futures ease a few dollars from a $100 Thursday settle.

The contested zone is not “can Brent ever be $90 again.” It is whether next week’s official 5pm print holds near this week’s triple-digit scare after Friday’s pullback.

1. Thursday’s $100 settle is the named precedent. Brent’s July 23 settlement at $100.69 (INN) — first above $100 since May — is why a July 31 print still above $91 is the base case, not an exotic. The open question is how much of that premium survives seven more days into a single timestamp.
2. Friday already repriced the mid-ladder. Above $94.99 sits at 39% (−13 percentage points on the day) and Above $100.99 at 22% (−11). Traders cut the odds of still being in triple digits at next Friday’s 5pm without abandoning the $91 floor entirely.
3. One timestamp, not a daily average. This board uses a Pyth one-minute close at 5pm ET. A session that trades $96 at noon and $90.50 at 5:01 can miss Above $90.99 even if the day’s “vibe” looked firm — settlement timing is the product.

About $29K traded across the ladder in 24 hours — enough to reprice mid-strikes with the futures tape, thin enough that another geopolitics session can still move these asks by double-digit percentage points before next Friday.